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The
Casino's Advantage
As you will see in the chart below,
the Casino's Advantage for Caribbean Stud Poker is 5.22%. (It
is referred to as the Total Average Return) It will always be
this, based on possible winning poker hands. The reason it
rises or lowers is due to how a gambler plays their cards.
However, this number can be deceiving, because the regular Casino
Advantage is correlated by the ratio of the amount of money lost to
the amount of the original bet. However, in Caribbean Stud
Poker, more often than not, a player will wager more than the
original bet. By putting the additional wager into the
equation, the result is a lower Casino Advantage. In fact it
is cut in half. A more accurate assessment of the Casino
Advantage places it at 2.5%.
The chart below lists all possible
winning hands and actions in a game of Caribbean Stud Poker.
Moving from left to right, the next column - Net Return -
essentially refers to the odds payoff. Think of each hand as
having a $1 ante and a $1 raise. A Straight has 4 to 1
odds. Therefore, a winning Straight will return $1 from even
odds on the ante, and $8 from the total wager ($2), for a total of
$9. The next column - Number of Hands - refers to the number
of times that a particular winning hand will be dealt out of the
total number of hands dealt in a 52 card deck. For example, a
Royal Flush will be dealt 16,759,740 times out of 19,933,230,517,200
card dealings. The next column - Total Hand Return - is simply
the Net Return multiplied by the Number of Hands. The
Probability Percentage is calculated by dividing the Number of Hands
for a particular winning hand, by the total Number of Hands
dealt. For instance, to calculate the probability percentage
for a Four of a Kind, divide 156,929,720 by 19,933,230,517,200 and
you get .01%. The last column - Average Return % - is
calculated by multiplying the Probability Percentage by the Net
Return.
Caribbean Stud
Poker Statistics Chart:
| Winning
Hand |
Net
Return |
Number
of Hands |
Total
Hand Return |
Probability
Percentage |
Average
Return % |
| Ace/king |
3 |
18,505,682,208 |
55,517,046,624 |
0.1 |
.28 |
| Pair |
3 |
2,324,742,321,600 |
6,974,226,964,800 |
11.66 |
34.99 |
| Two pair |
5 |
488,012,139,360 |
2,440,060,696,800 |
2.45 |
12.24 |
| Three of a kind |
7 |
234,242,908,320 |
1,639,700,358,240 |
1.18 |
8.23 |
| Straight |
9 (4
to 1) |
43,805,516,100 |
394,249,644,900 |
.22 |
1.98 |
| Flush |
11
(5 to 1) |
21,856,990,280 |
240,426,893,080 |
.11 |
1.21 |
| Full house |
15
(7 to 1) |
16,624,475,280 |
249,367,129,200 |
.08 |
1.25 |
| Four of a kind |
41
(20 to 1) |
2,832,435,800 |
116,129,867,800 |
.01 |
.58 |
| Straight flush |
101
(50 to 1) |
156,929,720 |
15,849,901,720 |
.0007 |
.08 |
| Royal flush |
201
(100 to 1) |
16,759,740 |
3,368,707,740 |
.00008 |
.02 |
| Ante only |
1 |
4,532,514,033,720 |
4,532,514,033,720 |
22.74 |
22.74 |
| Push |
0 |
321,623,100 |
0 |
.0016 |
0 |
| Fold |
-1 |
9,523,005,974,460 |
-9,523,005,974,460 |
47.77 |
-47.77 |
| Dealer wins |
-3 |
2,726,592,727,512 |
-8,179,778,182,536 |
13.68 |
-41.04 |
| Total |
393 |
19,933,230,517,200 |
-1,041,372,912,372 |
100% |
-5.22 |
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NOTE: By adding the
Probability Percentage to the Average Return %, you will get the
Total Probability Percent for that hand. For instance, the
chance for being dealt a Pair, regardless if it is a part of
something greater like a Full House or Three of a Kind, is 46.65%.
(11.66 + 34.99) Adding the two values for a Fold equals 0, because a
player can never be dealt a Fold! If you add all the Total
Probability Percents together for each possible winning hand and
action, you will get 94.78%. Where did the other 5.22%
go? That is the Casino's Advantage!
I know this can be overwhelming to
some; However, the bottom line to remember is that the proof and
numbers for playing Caribbean Stud Poker are right before your
eyes. Remember to account for the more accurate Casino Advantage of 2.5%
since this number definitely makes Caribbean Stud Poker look more
playable...Which it is!
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Caribbean Poker Stud
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